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Been seeing and hearing a bit lately about electric cars. The latest is the hype in the latest NRMA Open Road.
I hear a lot that electric cars are "zero emission", and as an Electrical Engineer I can only say this is utter BS. They have left off the last bit - "zero emissions at the tailpipe but plenty at the power station"
Let's just think for a moment that every person in Sydney took their internal combustion cars to the scrap dealer and bought a full electric car. Wasted carbon aside, everyone would want to charge the cars at the same time. Picking a kW number to charge a car, as I don't know exactly what voltage they charge at or what current, let's say 5kW which is about 20A at 240V. A unit at Bayswater or Eraring power stations is 660MW. At 5kW per car that is 132,000 cars. So let's drop the charge kW and say 250,000 cars charging at about 2.64kW each ALL NIGHT needs a 660MW unit ALL NIGHT. So if we take 1 million cars off the road and replace them with electric cars, you need both Bayswater and Eraring running full tilt ALL NIGHT to charge the cars. So where does the power come from for normal operation of the rest of the State of NSW?
Then to get the power to Sydney, you also have to generate the energy loss in transformation and transmission.
To me it doesn't add up - we will need another at least 4 x power Stations the size of Eraring and Bayswater to keep up, yet we are losing Liddell soon and have already lost Vales Point and Munmorah. Solar cannot help, unless everyone charges their own cars with Solar, but you want to charge it at night when there is no sun?
From what I understand there are electric car Super Chargers that can charge a car in 30min, but run at 25kW up to as high as 130 odd kW. At 25kW that is only about 26,000 cars to a 660MW unit, minus the losses to get the power to the car.
So all the supposed savings in vehicle emissions we just shift to power stations?
The only way it can work is if solar panels charge the cars directly, so large volume solar panels are needed where high concentrations of cars park during the day, and the car batteries become the solar storage. Otherwise the economics don't add up. |
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You reckon NSW might have a problem charging those oversized kids toys, Andrews has already fuc,ed Vic by closing down our only reliable power source. most of vic wont have enough power to run their house aircon let alone charge a car.
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It might a bit of an overstatement to say Hazelwood was the only reliable power supply, but it did constitute 25% of Victorian baseload capacity. I haven't seen any sensible replacement strategy yet, but I'm sure they'll be supplied by moonbeams and happy thoughts.
Something like the biggest fattest Tesla has a battery capacity in the order of 100kWhr, and a recharge efficiency around 90% so you'd need.to put 111kWhr back into a flat battery. From fully discharged, assuming a 12 hour recharge time you'd need 9.2kW which is 38.5A at 240V. Not everyone has a three phase mains connection, so a large proportion of houses would struggle to run a load that large with a single phase supply. ETSA in South Australia, for example, used to refuse to connect anything bigger than 5kW single phase due to supply balance and harmonics issues. And that's ignoring the generation and capacity issues Byron raised.
Ever seen what a 111kWhr solar system looks like, or the battery system required to store it's output so you can charge your car at night? Or the inconvenient fact that the real world lifetime for the car battery and the solar battery will be 6-7 years.
Not terribly practical just yet.
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We actually had a discussion on the economics of this at work the other day, as someone brought up the TV ad where one of the energy companies is claiming you can charge a car for $1 a night on their plan.
So we figured if a 100kwh battery in the Tesla can do 400km range, what would the cost per 100km be?
It would need 110kw/h to charge it (based on efficiencies). If off-peak were 11c/kwh then 110kwh = $12.10 in power costs. But if it's charged on peak at say 28c/kwh then 110kwh = $30.80 in power costs.
As soon as they get any volume of cars charging off the grid, it will wipe out the "off peak" benefits, and we'll probably lose that altogether (it's already going with demand style variable cost metering being rolled out). And do you even get enough time on off-peak to get a full charge? If the off-peak time cuts off, then it's going to need to switch over to continue charging.
So a full charge on off-peak is unlikely to be viable.
So back to the 400km range - that's based on low-load cruise conditions (I know someone who has an early P60 and they only get 150-180 between charges driving in peak hour stop-start). It's only fair to compare say a hybrid Camry, and a Corolla under the same conditions - but let's just take the combined fuel economy cycle numbers so we're talking facts. Camry Hybrid: 5.2L/100km Corolla CVT auto petrol: 6.1L/100km
Currently petrol is around $1.45/L (and last week it was $1.25), but lets make it $1.50 to be even more fair to the greenies who don't understand 1 big fixed tailpipe vs thousands of mobile ones..... (ie simply shifting CO & CO2 emissions).
So to do 400km in the Camry would cost $31.20, and in the Corolla it's $36.60
Both those cars are 1/3 the cost of the large Tesla (smaller one doesn't seem to have an AU price, but you can bet it will be near double either of the Toyota examples).
At the moment, using peak pricing for power (which most would be forced to use to charge at home) it's line-ball for true running costs compared to the Camry (a diesel or Prius would swing it even more in favour of fossil fuels).
Power prices will no doubt go up at a more rapid rate than petrol too.
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Cheers,
Mick _______________________________________________________________
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I suppose you could always run a "Bunnings special" generator all night to charge your car. That way you'd still look like a greenie during the day.
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Those figures Mick are what I suspected would be the case. Whilst I am all for green energy, the problem we still have is storage, and as soon as you store energy the efficiency drops. Store solar in a battery, then use that battery to invert the energy then convert again into a car battery, then convert into motion. Wasteful. I also believe that until battery technology takes another leap, electric cars in massive proportions and household storage is a big waste of money. Plus Lithium-ion batteries use Cobalt which is toxic and mined virtually by slave workers in ecologically important areas such as Congo. The Cobalt extraction process is not done properly and creates environmental damage. There is plenty of web articles on Lithium and Cobalt that every purchaser of an electric car should read, and at least understand. Carbon batteries are the next thing, you can buy lead carbon now, some info here: http://www.batterx.io/en/product/battery/Hopefully the technology advances further into electric vehicles and solar storage. The problem will be that when a carbon battery is produced it needs carbon, and the greenies won't like that because it means COAL MINES and coal mines are "bad". Far better to have environmental nightmare Lithium and Cobalt mining in 3rd world countries! |
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Originally Posted by: commodorenut We actually had a discussion on the economics of this at work the other day, as someone brought up the TV ad where one of the energy companies is claiming you can charge a car for $1 a night on their plan.
So we figured if a 100kwh battery in the Tesla can do 400km range, what would the cost per 100km be?
It would need 110kw/h to charge it (based on efficiencies). If off-peak were 11c/kwh then 110kwh = $12.10 in power costs. But if it's charged on peak at say 28c/kwh then 110kwh = $30.80 in power costs.
As soon as they get any volume of cars charging off the grid, it will wipe out the "off peak" benefits, and we'll probably lose that altogether (it's already going with demand style variable cost metering being rolled out). And do you even get enough time on off-peak to get a full charge? If the off-peak time cuts off, then it's going to need to switch over to continue charging.
So a full charge on off-peak is unlikely to be viable.
So back to the 400km range - that's based on low-load cruise conditions (I know someone who has an early P60 and they only get 150-180 between charges driving in peak hour stop-start). It's only fair to compare say a hybrid Camry, and a Corolla under the same conditions - but let's just take the combined fuel economy cycle numbers so we're talking facts. Camry Hybrid: 5.2L/100km Corolla CVT auto petrol: 6.1L/100km
Currently petrol is around $1.45/L (and last week it was $1.25), but lets make it $1.50 to be even more fair to the greenies who don't understand 1 big fixed tailpipe vs thousands of mobile ones..... (ie simply shifting CO & CO2 emissions).
So to do 400km in the Camry would cost $31.20, and in the Corolla it's $36.60
Both those cars are 1/3 the cost of the large Tesla (smaller one doesn't seem to have an AU price, but you can bet it will be near double either of the Toyota examples).
At the moment, using peak pricing for power (which most would be forced to use to charge at home) it's line-ball for true running costs compared to the Camry (a diesel or Prius would swing it even more in favour of fossil fuels).
Power prices will no doubt go up at a more rapid rate than petrol too.
111kWh is what needs to go into a 100kWh battery to fully recharge it from a full dischrge. Add to that the charger efficiency and you have a mains supply draw of 123kWh. Then the cost of ownership - a 7 year battery life to 40% capacity and depending on who you believe, a $40,000 full replacement cost.
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If it's $40,000 replacement after 7 years bugger the greens and the anti fossil fuel brigade, for that money put a chev in it and with the change you can buy ultimate for another 7 years.
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Not cars, strictly speaking, but relevant to a previous topic. The life for this system will be 7-10 years at best. http://www.news.com.au/t...8e143cf3ae7f2cf53c67914d
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^^I don't have an issue with that setup, except it isn't cost effective and will never pay for itself. Plus I wonder what environmental and human damage was done mining the Lithium and Cobalt to build all those batteries. I believe we are 5-10 years away from true energy and cost efficient storage. These are the next step: https://futurism.com/sci...battery-thanks-graphene/ |
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